7:18 AM May 16, 1997

ICTS NEED NATIONAL STRATEGIES

Geneva, 16 May (Chakravarthi Raghavan) -- Developing countries and transition economies need to establish and formulate a national Information and Communication Technology (ICT) strategy, and the UN system agencies should, in their own areas of responsibility, a UN body of science and technology experts have recommended.

The UN Commission on Science and Technology for Development (CSTD), a functional commission under the ECOSOC which meets once in two years, was due Friday to wind up a week-long session where the ICT issues was a principal issue discussed.

ICTs have considerable potential, but they are not without costs, and could widen the gap between technologically-oriented and technologically-sceptical countries, and between the industrially advanced and the less advanced ones, an Indian expert at the CSTD, Dr. S.Ramani who is director of India's National Centre for Software Technology told the group in initiating the discussions.

Ramani, as well as several experts who participated in the discussions, were clear that while ICTs could be harnessed for the benefit of development and people, it cannot be achieved by merely leaving things to the market.

ICTs, and information networks, are not an end in themselves, and policies would be needed to influence technologists to focus on development catalysing operations, Ramani added.

Ramani raised a number of questions, without providing answers, including one about the over-reliance on ICTs and its software-en, to caution against seeing it as a panacea.

"Is this a stable enough industry or is it one that will get wiped out when a new model of software development is invented," he asked.

"Could the industry assist a country to improve its balance of trade position and improve employment on its own shores? How is domestic use of ICTs, as different from use in the export-oriented sector, to be promoted and how can best practices of ICTs spread over an entire economy. Is such an internal focus more important than the one on the export of software services? Are there developments catalysing applications of ICTs on which we must focus?"

The use of ICTs and their usefulness to developing countries in 'catching-up' on industrialization and development is often held forth by several studies, and economists and others who also focus on the 'comparative advantage' developing countries have in producing software (needing intensive skilled labour) and exporting them via telecommunications, with minimal, and temporary, physical presence to deliver and trouble-shoot.

Some questions raised at the CSTD however suggest that the kind of expertise and skills needed in producing such software and exporting or delivered them, would not be enough to have leap-frogging effect on the development of the economy as a whole.

Innovations in software, conceptual and otherwise, to enable its use through the entire agriculture, industry, business and other sectors of an economy, would need different types of skills, and state role in promoting and fostering policies to this end.

Technology need not always impact on culture, but, ICTs do threaten to alter the balance in the field of language and culture, Ramani warns.

The information technology network brings a flood of news and views from outside into a local culture, and many cultures which were secluded to some extent, suddenly see the full blast of unfettered debate, cultural rebelliousness, and commercial perversion of many things considered sacred.

"Those who benefit most form the net are those who have learnt its dominant language, English. The local scripts of a language look outdated (and would soon disappear) if they are not quickly accommodated on the keyboards and displays," says Ramani whose institution had a hand in some pioneering work in the early 1980s to developing the software to accommodate Indian scripts to computer screens.

The ICTs, the working group report says, are already transforming the way large and small firms and governments conduct their business, and are contributing to rapid changes in the world economy. Equally dramatic are its implications for social and environment sectors: education, health care, transportation, employment and leisure time are all undergoing revolutionary changes.

The impact of these changes are being felt in industrial countries, and some sectors of developing countries are also benefiting.

The report brings out the unevenness even within the industrial world of the ICT use, and the "Information Society".

In terms of internet use, for e.g., use in Africa and Asia is about 5 per 10,000 population, while it is between 100-200 in Western Europe and over 600 in America. In terms of internet hosts, the US and Canada account for 70%, Western Europe for 21%, the Pacific for 4%, Asia for three percent and others two percent.

Some protagonists of the ICTs suggest that it will only be a matter of time before market mechanisms and new forms of international cooperation would ensure that all the world's citizens can enjoy the benefits of this global information society, and there is little need for special measures by governments.

However others note that while changes in society are occurring as a result of ICTs, the "truly transformative nature" of these changes are exaggerated, and that there are also major problems.

"The new technologies may be destroying more jobs than they create, and there is a great risk that they will in fact widen the gap between the rich and the poor. Also, the huge capital investments required to strengthen national capabilities to produce and use ICTs may divert both public and private resources from other activities with greater development impact."

But experts on both sides of this argument call for national strategies on ICTs, even as they caution the developing countries and the transition economies so that they do not embrace the ICTs too enthusiastically and be disillusioned over its inability to solve their development problems.

The working group confesses that after reviewing more than 60 papers on different aspects of the problem, it has been unable to reach firm conclusions about many aspects of the debate.

It also discovered that the impact of these technologies on economies and societies is not as deep or pervasive as the debate about the benefits of the global information society sometimes makes it appear.

"There are still very many people whose lives have been barely touched by ICTs and others who have suffered unemployment or difficulties because of introduction of ICTs... There are still large numbers of schools without access to ICTs, and many educational curricula do not provide the training needed to produce the new technologies, customize them to local needs or use them effectively."

The working group however concluded: "Although the costs of building national information infrastructures and joining the global information infrastructures are high, the costs of not doing so are likely to be much higher...

"As yet, the evidence that ICTs will transform the world and bring benefits to all its citizens is inconclusive, but there is sufficient evidence of their potential to indicate that it would be wise for all governments and other stake-holders to take the steps needed to access and use these technologies," says the working group.

"For this reason, the working group recommends that each country establish a national ICT strategy."

The report notes that as the Global Information Infrastructure (GII) develops, markets in the industrialized world in some products and services are becoming saturated, and suppliers are seeking new markets and revenue sources elsewhere. They are looking to developing countries and transition economies - where such products are just becoming available and there is a large gap between rich and poor countries on the availability of such technologies.

This provides a "temporary window of opportunity" for developing and transition countries to encourage ICT production and applications more responsive to their basic needs and market requirements.

Looking to the future, and the various visions or scenarios of the 21st century, the working group suggests that the evolution could be in the direction of enabling and more inclusive environment -- leading to open communication technology standards and universal access to communication networks, thus integrating nations and societies into a global economy.

But it could also evolve in the direction of domination by a few powerful companies, increased concentration of technology, capital, wealth and power within the industrialized world.

"The result would be a disintegrating global economy characterized by continuing monopolization and oligopolistic market structures in many areas of the ICT sector."

In either of these environments, governments, private sector firms and NGOs in developing countries and the transition economies may adopt a passive stance (what the report calls a 'cargo cult', aided by the 'march of follies' with the ICT industry flourishing through monopolies) over the next decade and fail to introduce policy initiatives to promote use of ICTs to meet development goals.

Alternative policies, and a wide range of active national responses, could result in the build-up and accumulation of technological capabilities in these countries, the working group says.

A working group of the CSTD, which functioned between sessions has produced a report providing an assessment of the ICTs for Development, and recommendations on what governments and UN organizations should do.

A longer report, based on several commissioned papers, to serve as a reference work for policy-makers and their advisors, was made available at the CSTD in a draft form, and is due to be published soon as a book.

The substantive work of the commission, and its usefulness as a cross-cutting exercise over the range of development and other issues before the UN system, has been clouded by the discussions within the ECOSOC framework about future of the CSTD, as well as serious issues about the way the funds available for the CSTD, regular UN budget appropriations and the extra-budgetary resources of a Dutch contribution, have been spent, mainly on travel and outside consultancy, because of the CSTD's work style -- with the chair and the bureau taking over the normal functions of the UN secretariat.

In its report, the Working Group notes that in some parts of the world, ICTs are contributing to revolutionary changes in business and everyday life, while other parts of the world have been barely touched by these technologies.

But there is little question, says the report, that the social and economic potential of ICTs is enormous.

"But so too are the risks that those without the capabilities to design, produce and use the new products and service applications may be disadvantaged or excluded from participating actively in their local communities and in the global information society."

A survey of the evidence regarding implications of ICTs for developing countries and the transition economies led the working group to conclude that while there are substantial indicators of the way new technologies are transforming some sectors of society, "there is a very great risk that if effective national ICT strategies are not put in place, the capacity building that is needed in order to benefit from these technologies may not occur."

Governments and other stakeholders must design new roles for the public and business sectors to enable ICTs to be harnessed to economic, social and environmental development goals, the working group concludes and recommends:

* Each developing country, and country in transition, should establish a national ICT strategy; where such strategies exist, they should be reviewed to ensure that they take note of the guidelines proposed by the CSTD in this behalf.

* National governments should take immediate actions to establish a task force.

* Each agency of the UN system should review the financing, production and use of ICTs for social and economic development in its area of responsibility, monitor the effectiveness of new forms of partnerships in the ICT area and provide technical assistance so that the UN system can be in the forefront in helping developing countries and countries in transition to implement their national ICT strategies.

"UNCTAD," the working group further suggests, "should prepare a study for the next session of the CSTD on the implications of new forms of revenue generation, focusing especially on those involving ICTs which may support social and economic development priorities.

"In particular, it should report on the implications for developing countries and countries in transition of the ongoing discussions and studies on a 'bit tax'," the working group recommends.