8:16 AM Mar 6, 1995

DOUBTS NEW CONSULTATIONS WILL PRODUCE A WTO HEAD

Geneva 6 March (TWN/Chakravarthi Raghavan) -- Trade diplomats were somewhat sceptic that the fresh round of information consultations, confined to the remaining two remaining candidates in the running for the top at the World Trade Organization, will take them any nearer a consensus decision than the earlier rounds so far.

Late Friday night, news reports out of Washington quoted the US Trade Representative Mickey Kantor as saying that the choice of a WTO head should be by consensus and that the US would work with all delegations "in a renewed process". The US believes, Kantor is reported as adding, that "the list of candidates, the process and the timing should not be artificially limited".

This was seen as a reference to the view that the term of office of Peter Sutherland as the WTO Director-General ends on 15 March and a successor should be chosen before that.

Technically, Sutherland's tenure and contract, when he was chosen as GATT Director-General in July 1993 is to run till June end at least. While he had officially announced soon after Marrakesh that he did not want to take on the WTO job, and could not agree on a long-term commitment in that post, he had also at that time told several delegates that he had no rigid time schedule and would be flexible to enable a successor to be chosen and there could be a smooth change-over. But after it had fielded Ruggiero, and there was a deadlock making clear that no one can be chosen in time to head the organization when it came into being on 1 January, the EU was foremost in resisting suggestions that Sutherland should be asked to continue till June end. After many back and forth on whether he should have a 3-month or an indefinite term, it agreed to a term for Sutherland as the WTO chief till 15 March, and has been using this impending 'deadline' to get Ruggiero chosen.

The decision to undertake a fresh round of consultations "with a view towards reaching consensus" on one of the two remaining candidates, Dr. Kim Chul-Su of Korea and Renato Ruggiero of Italy, was taken at the WTO Friday morning at an informal conclave of some 20 delegations and endorsed later in the evening at a full informal plenary of WTO and GATT heads of delegations.

But even as delegates came out of the evening conclave, and chatted to reporters, it was apparent that many felt that the new count may still end up in a deadlock -- with Ruggiero and Kim picking up some preferences from the former Salinas supporters.

US Ambassador, Booth Gardner, hinted as much when he told reporters that he had not voiced any opinion at the morning or evening meeting since he had no instructions pending inter-agency consultations in Washington, but that if the new count did not produce a consensus, "we may have to look for a candidate who can produce a consensus".

Gardner did not reportedly express any view at the morning consultations, and the EU ambassador, Jean-Pierre Leng, made a pointed reference to this to tell reporters that the US had not objected to the choice of a successor to Peter Sutherland being confined to the two candidates left.

But Gardner, in his talk with reporters, made clear that the only decision at the meeting, and to which he had no objected, was to have a fresh round of consultations and restrict it to the two.

Several, Latin American delegates said it was not only the US that remained silent, but all those who had backed Salinas. "We have not had time to reassess our positions in the light of the withdrawal of Salinas, and the Mercosur and other regional groupings will hold consultations and things will be clarified by mid-week," one of them said.

While the European Union, pushing Ruggiero's candidature, is hoping that the new head count would find supporters of Salinas, and some Kim supporters, supporting Ruggiero and creating a bandwagon effect to ensure his consensus selection, other trade diplomats did not see such an easy outcome.

They said that unless the US reverses itself and endorses Ruggiero, there will continue to be a stalemate -- with Ruggiero picking up some more support than the 57 (out of 114 consulted) at last count as also Kim who then had 29.

As some of them put it, even if the new count results in a 70-34 lineup, it will still not solve anything. It will not create a consensus and either there will be a prolonged and damaging stalemate or force the search for a new candidate who could command a consensus, these diplomats said.

The Latin Americans seem to be proceeding on the basis of a stalemate and trying to get a new candidate from their region (one or two names, including that of the Felipe Lampreia, Brazilian foreign minister who was his country's representative to GATT before becoming Minister, are being mentioned) who they hope might prove acceptable to the US and EU.

Other delegations told reporters later that while Washington seemed to have divided views, it was difficult to see the US reversing itself to support Ruggiero and a fresh count, and the announcement of its outcome, would resolve anything.

Meanwhile, WTO Director-General Peter Sutherland is keeping his own counsel and declining to say anything -- lest he appear to be seen as siding with the US or the EU in this matter.

Efforts by some to get him to express any views -- either that he would walk away on 15 March or even that he will stay on if asked have not been successful.

The EU diplomats for some time now have been privately saying that they were opposed to Sutherland's continuance beyond 15 March, and Leng is reported to have made this known at a luncheon briefing by him to some selected reporters, several of whom wrote stories to that effect.

One long-time observer of the WTO/GATT scene said that the problem runs deeper than selecting an individual: those on hand now and heading the delegations are mostly new and have not established the personal chemistry and trust with each other so necessary for compromises and some of the principals in the capitals seem to be talking, and talking past each other and not with each other.