8:12 AM Mar 22, 1995

RUGGIERO STUMBLES ON - TO THE GOAL POST?

Geneva 22 Mar (Chakravarthi Raghavan) -- By any normal calculations of mathematical odds, former Italian Trade Minister Renato Ruggiero ought to have clinched his year-long chase after the job by being named by consensus Tuesday as the next head of the World Trade Organization.

The WTO/GATT machinery had been all set to issue a press release, in the name of the WTO General Council Chairman, Amb. Krishnasami Kesavapani of Singapore, about the choice of Ruggiero at an informal Heads of Delegations meet Tuesday evening, and to be formally elected by the WTO General Council, to succeed Sutherland.

But Ruggiero did not make it Tuesday evening and may or may not make it even Wednesday evening at another informal heads of delegations meeting called by Kesavapani who is anxious to complete the selection process and get this out of the way.

From the beginning the odds had favoured Ruggiero.

As the nominee of the European Union -- which with its web of dependency relationships in the Third World and in Europe, automatically commands a simple majority inside the WTO -- Ruggiero had commanded a majority from the first of the many straw polls since mid-October as against his two rivals, the US-Latin American-backed Salinas de Gortari and the Japan-Asian-backed Kim Chul-Su.

His election seemed certain after two of his rivals had withdrawn -- Carlos Salinas of Mexico in the wake of the Mexican crisis and the arrest of his brother for involvement in some of the political assassinations -- and the Korean candidate Tuesday morning. But a scheduled informal heads of delegations meeting of the WTO/GATT delegates where this was to have been done, became another 'information' and 'transparency' exercise, swamped as it was by the concerns and anger of many delegations at the way the deals were cooked outside, relayed to the media and membership expected to fall in line with Kesavapani's role described in one media report as one of lining up the membership behind the deals.

The odds still are of a near-certain Ruggiero choice, but may be after a few more days.

But Ruggiero's remarks Tuesday in Washington at a joint press conference after meeting US Trade Representative Mickey Kantor may have saved the US face but added to the concerns of the developing world making several of them feel that Ruggiero must clarify his many remarks so far -- and perhaps for the 'real Ruggiero to stand up'.

Whether they will actually hold up the process for this was not clear as of Wednesday noon. Though many could be vociferous outside, in talking to journalists, few have shown the ability to stand up inside. And those few who can, but had not made up their minds, can't be written off easily.

One press report from Washington cited Ruggiero as supportive of the US view on labour standards in the WTO while another, in the Wall Street Journal (which had reached him on the phone after early reports of his 'social standards in WTO' remark), showed he was trying to explain this away.

But his other remarks -- such as about WTO, IMF and World Bank acting in concert to advance the goal of shared leadership in the globalizing world economy, about the WTO new agenda for investment rules etc -- have aroused other concerns among developing country diplomats, and will place the WTO even more directly in the firing line of the NGOs.

Sixtyfour-year old Ruggiero may still turn out to be a competent WTO head, but at the moment he has been exhibiting affliction by the 'foot-in-mouth' disease, one envoy remarked.

In December, after visiting Washington to win US support, Ruggiero had been quoted as saying that he had not gone there to negotiate, and warning against a rift in transatlantic alliance and that he could "represent the transatlantic alliance" better than citizens of Mexico or Korea.

Another pen-picture of him (from Rome) quoted him (for proving his free trade credentials) as saying that if "goods cannot cross borders, soldiers will" -- which to many in the Third World was a reminder of the 17th century (when British and other European gunboats opened up markets and colonized countries of Asia and Africa, and US gunboats opened up Japan for commerce) or the 1930s when Italian soldiers crossed frontiers - Ethiopia, Somalia - to establish colonies.

Ruggiero is said to be on his way back from Washington and due to visit Geneva tomorrow, where he plans a meeting with the Asians and the press. News reports from Rome sourced to those close to him said he is coming here to take over his as WTO head (though only last week, Sutherland was requested to stay on till 30 April -- the EU failed to word it as 'no later than' -- and he agreed to it).

Angry developing country delegates - angrier Wednesday after seeing their systemic worries being described as "miffed" by the Washington-Seoul-Brussels deal - were seeking to get a transcript of the Ruggiero press conference in Washington for clarifications.

Carefully leaked stories to the media from Seoul and Washington Monday night had announced that Ruggiero's remaining rival, Kim had withdrawn in return for a fourth deputy's post (with the withdrawal to be officially conveyed by Korea in the consultations in Geneva) and that the United States, whose Trade Representative had publicly described Ruggiero as a 'protectionist' and, in private, derisively dismissed him 'as that Italian car salesman' -- Ruggiero is currently an executive of the Italian Fiat motor company -- had overcome its objections to support Ruggiero.

The terms of the deal had also been spelt out: Ruggiero to take only a four-year term, to be succeeded by a non-European, and KIM to be accommodated for his withdrawal by being named to the post of a Deputy Director-General in a fourth post to be created in addition to the current three Deputies.

One of the media that had announced the deals had also identified Kesavapani's job as one of lining up the rest of the WTO membership behind the Washington-Brussels-Seoul accord (and say 'amen').

Tuesday morning, Kesavapani, who had been advised of the development both by Korean and the US missions to the WTO (just a few minutes before he and other diplomats heard it on the BBC radio and the details of the 'deal' from the printed media), confirmed that the race was all over and he was hoping to be able to complete the process and enable the WTO to get down to its serious work.

But it did not happen that way.

On Tuesday evening, Kesavapani coming out of the short informal HOD meeting could only tell newsmen that he expected a decision "shortly", fending off questions about the "shortly" or even when the next HOD meeting would be held.

Others, while were happy the tussle was getting over and there could be a consensus decision, stressed that the selection of the WTO head was a multilateral process, whereas it was being done elsewhere by two or three people and this was not good for the system.

Chilean Ambassador, Ernesto Tironi said on record, what many others said on background.

"This is a decision taken by two or three people outside Geneva, when we are supposed to have a process here. It is very discouraging for the future of the WTO. We are disturbed by the idea of creating a fourth Deputy Director-General post for KIM. Does the Organization have to accommodate any losing candidate?"

While Ruggiero spoke in Washington of establishing the WTO credibility, several diplomats said that the process had actually damaged the credibility and effectiveness of both Ruggiero and KIM, both inside the secretariat and even more in terms of the WTO's intergovernmental setup.

Earlier in the day, angry Third World diplomats, both Kim's supporters and Ruggiero supporters as well as others, declined to blindly endorse what two or three persons outside had decided nor accept all the 'terms of the deal'. Many Europeans privately shared their misgivings.

At a meeting of Kesavapani with Kim supporters (in Asia), several delegations would appear to have said that while they were happy to hear of the withdrawal, enabling them to support a consensus for Ruggiero, they had not been advised of the "deal" and that they would need to be officially advised so that they could inform the capitals and get clear instructions. While their countries were commited to support Kim for the post of the WTO head (so long as he remained in the race), they had no such commitment about creating the post of a fourth Deputy D.G. and naming him to it.

Some Asians later told newsmen, non-attributively, that they wanted to hear directly from Korea (whose candidate they had backed) and the others about the withdrawal and the terms.

"We are hearing about it in the press and elsewhere, but nothing directly and we want to hear directly and precisely," one of the Ambassadors said. "We backed KIM and Korea we should have been consulted and advised about the compromise and their intention to withdraw, rather than announce it via the press there and for us to read about it."

Africans already aggrieved over their low representation in the GATT/WTO secretariat, and who had supported Ruggiero, also were upset that they had got nothing out of the support either. They were sought to be pacified Wednesday with the promise that next time around (when the vacancies arise in the top management), they could nominate a candidate.

Old time GATT officials expressed privately their concern, noting that for all his pressures, Sutherland had not been able to get more staff to cope with the increased work load and undertake some research activities, and now a Dy. D.G. post is being created and the regionalisation of staff (on top of the regional trading blocs) is being set in motion.

At a Kesavapani consultation Tuesday with the 20 odd key delegations, where he tried to get everyone to agree and get the process out of the way, the Nigerian delegate wanted time and suggested that they should be 'allowed their dignity' and not made to fall in line with deals others cut outside.

The US delegate, Andrew Stohler (the second in the Mission, with Amb. Bruce Gardner in Washington for the Kantor-Ruggiero meeting), agreed that the appointment of a Deputy D.G. under the rules was to be done by the D.G. in consultation with the contracting parties.

With Korea's, Amb. HO, at this stage reportedly suggesting that KIM's candidacy was still there and he had not officially withdrawn, and with others not wanting to be rushed and wanting to wait and see what the US was going to say at a press conference in Washington as also what Ruggiero would say there, Kesavapani decided to merely inform delegations and not rush into any decision.

On Wednesday morning, the WTO/GATT power-brokers were trying to get this 'exercise', which had been distracting them from their substantive work, out of the way atleast by evening. While an informal Heads of Delegations meeting has been summoned for the evening, even this may have to be put off, some trade officials said.

But the "jinx" dogging the candidates and the process in this affair, as a key Third World diplomat put it Tuesday evening, may still result in some further delays, and perhaps may have to await new Ruggiero clarifications of his positions on key WTO issues to developing countries, as also the problem of coupling a decision on Ruggiero with another on Kim -- given the fact that technically a post has first to be sanctioned and created, Ruggiero holding consultations with delegations and getting their approval, before appointing him.