SUNS  4310 Tuesday 27 October 1998

Washington, Oct 25 (IPS/Danielle Knight) -- Environmentalists have accused the Republican-dominated U.S. Congress of trying to mask its aim of defeating the Kyoto treaty on global warming by alleging that developing countries pose a threat to American business.

Next month in Buenos Aires, countries will negotiate the details of the treaty that aims to reduce "greenhouse gas" emissions believed to be responsible for global warming. But, U.S. Republican senators and congress members are adamant they will not ratify the agreement unless developing nations commit to binding limitations on emissions.

"This call by the U.S. Congress has been based on false assumptions," says Agus Sari, a member of the Indonesian climate treaty negotiating team. "Developing countries should be exempt from the treaty since they are not responsible for the bulk of the greenhouse gas emissions currently in the atmosphere!"

"Why should developing countries commit to binding limits on emissions when those who have polluted the most historically are not reducing emissions?," adds Atiq Rahman, director of the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies. "The whole fairness question has been turned upside
down."

Most scientists agree that the cause of global warming stems from carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases released through the burning of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and gas. If these emissions are not reduced, scientists say temperatures will continue to increase around the world and will increase the risk of storms, floods, heat waves and droughts.

The threat was readily acknowledged by nearly all countries of the world when they gathered in the Japanese city of Kyoto last December to negotiate the climate change agreement.

Industrialised nations agreed to reduce the emissions of six greenhouse gases by an average of six percent from 1990 levels, and to complete the reductions between 2008 and 2012. But Republican lawmakers, echoing a multi-million-dollar advertising campaign paid for by oil companies, say they will not approve the treaty because it unfairly exempts developing countries and will hurt the U.S. economy.

Congress maintains that the emissions of developing countries as a whole will equal the emissions of the industrialised countries within 15 or 20 years. They say by the time that the United States and other developed nations comply with the Kyoto Protocol developing countries emissions will make other reductions useless.

"That is not exactly right," says Nancy Kete, director of the climate program at the Washington-based World Resources Institute. "Climate change is a very long term problem. The correct way to determine when the relative contributions of greenhouse gases of the North and the South equal each other is to look at the emissions that have accumulated in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution."

Kete says that, when emissions from 1850 to the present day and into the future are taken into account, the United States and other industrialised countries will be contributing more to the increase in the atmospheric contributions for at least 30 to 50 years. Estimates used by congress members opposed to the treaty only take into account annual emissions.

"Besides, I do not think that anyone outside of the United States believes that this country has been treated unfairly because developing countries are not bound by commitments," says Kete. "We have four percent of the world's population and we put out 21 percent of the carbon dioxide," she says.

While emissions from industrialised nations increase, many developing countries are taking voluntary steps to cut their emissions, adds Atiq Rahman. "Developing countries are doing tremendous things," he says.

China, for example, reduced its subsidies for petroleum and oil by up to 55 percent in the 1980s. Other developing countries, including Brazil, India, and South Africa have all cut fossil fuel subsidies
while actively promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, such as wind power.

Brazil initiated a program to use ethyl alcohol from sugar cane in automobiles, in order to reduce dependence on foreign oil; and Thailand has increased its investment in energy efficiency for consumers, Rahman says.

"It is time now to flip the table and have industrialised nations take responsibility," says Agus Sari.

Emissions from industrialised countries are expected to continue to rise despite commitments made during the Rio Earth Summit to voluntarily reduce emissions. The United States emissions are projected to be 13 percent above 1990 levels by 2000.

"The only way developing countries would feel comfortable getting into the system is through trust; building where the first step would be for industrialised countries to demonstrate commitment to reduce emissions," says Atiq Rahman "Once this happens I thing the ice will break."

Other analysts say that the financial turmoil of the past year may affect the upcoming negotiations.

"Given the calamity that's befallen this region, people are worried about far more basic things, and interest in accepting austerity measures to fight pollution will be far less than it was a year ago,"
observes Al Troner, managing director of Asia Pacific Energy consulting in Kuala Lumpur.

Yet if the issue of developing country participation is not resolved and climate change is not abated, the poorest of the poor - many living in developing countries - will bear the brunt of global warming, says Kete.

"Every year that these industrial interests succeed in delaying the policy changes and implementation of the treaty costs billions of dollars in health costs and thousands of lives," she says.

"We need to keep in mind as we debate the politics, that the poorest of the poor especially in developing countries will suffer the most by climate change and its accompanying floods, storms and droughts."