SUNS  4314 Monday 2 November 1998


BRAZIL: FROM NEO-LIBERALISM TO THE 'PINK WAVE'

Florianopolis, Brazil, Oct 29 (IPS/Carlos Castilho) -- The two rounds of elections held in the past month in Brazil indicated that while voters supported the current "neo-liberal" economic model, they wanted to see some changes in its approach to social issues.

In the first round, held on Oct. 4, Brazilian voters expressed their support for the basic aspects of the economic policy applied today, by re-electing President Fernando Henrique Cardoso by an absolute majority.

But in the second round of voting on Oct. 25, two-thirds of 106 million voters sent a clear message that they wanted a review of at least some aspects of the model, especially its approach to social questions.

The call for a review of the model came in the shape of a "pink wave," the name given to the election of several candidates identified with the social democratic movement as governors of states that have a heavy influence on central government policies, like Rio de Janeiro, Minas
Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul.

These three states, along with Sao Paulo, account for 85 percent of Brazil's gross domestic product, and are home to nearly half of all voters.

Prominent analysts like sociologist Fatima Jordao with the Facts, Research and Journalism Institute of Sao Paulo say the two faces of the elections explain the resounding defeat of the presidential candidate of the Workers Party (PT), Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, and the leftist party's unexpectedly positive performance in the second round of elections in a number of states just three weeks later.

"Lula personifies opposition to the model," said Jordao. "For that reason he was rejected, while in the regional elections, voters expressed their desire for greater participation in the search for
solutions - within the model - to the violent social crisis generated by the neo-liberal economic orientation."
Jordao's analysis was based on the results of public opinion surveys carried out in six of Brazil's 27 states prior to the elections.

The stance taken by Brazilian voters looked even more paradoxical in the light of Cardoso's announcement this week of a package of measures designed to slash the public deficit in the next three years.

The harsh austerity measures had been expected since late September. The initial reaction indicated that Brazilians accept the need for sacrifices, but that they have not simply written the government a blank check.

The measures, which entail nearly 23 billion dollars in spending cuts and tax hikes, and deal a heavy blow to public employees, face heated debate in Congress.

Considerable modifications are expected to be introduced as the government's proposal makes its way through Congress, due to pressure by recently elected state governors, a few of whom even have close ties to the president, such as Sao Paulo governor-elect Mario Covas, a member of Cardoso's party but a staunch opponent of cuts in health and education.

Brazil's two rounds of elections this month clearly revealed that even faithful voters failed to cast their ballots along party lines and in accordance with concepts of "left" and "right" - a pattern that
analysts expect to be repeated in the congressional vote on the fiscal adjustment measures, according to Jairo Nicolau, of the Rio de Janeiro University Institute of Political Research.

The phenomenon of the "pink wave" thus neither represents a rejection of the model nor a return to social democratic policies. But it does illustrate a shift in approach toward specific issues like
unemployment, wages, public safety and social security, under growing public scrutiny, said Jordao.

That was further borne out by surveys that found significant growth of support for the PT among middle-class voters who did not vote for Lula - even though they knew that Cardoso would implement tough austerity measures in the wake of the elections - but did support PT candidates
in the regional elections.