SUNS  4324 Monday 16 November 1998

Geneva, 12 Nov (Chakravarthi Raghavan) -- The informal consultation process for choosing the next Director-General of the World Trade Organization is now in the court of the two "facilitators" - Amb. Celso Lafer of Brazil and Amb. William Rossier of Switzerland - who are expected soon to start consultations with members on their preferences from among the four who have thrown their hats in the ring.

The four candidates --  Roy Maclaren of Canada, Thai Deputy prime Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi, Mike Moore of New Zealand and Hassan Abouyoub of Morroco (in that order spread over three days this week) - appeared before informal plenary meetings of the heads of delegations
to the WTO, made presentations of their views on the tasks before the WTO what needs to be done and what they wanted to do, and answered questions.

In the new talk of 'transparency' at the WTO, each of them, also appeared before the media to answer some blunt, and perhaps ruder, questions on why they thought they were the best suited for the job; how and whether they will improve 'transparency' not merely to the media and NGOs, but what civil society in the developing world is demanding, namely, of transparency in decision-making and advance notice to public of what the WTO was negotiating or going to decide; about the WTO's intrusion in domestic affairs of countries in the name of trade, about northern environment NGOs worried about quality of life, and Southern and Northern Development NGOs and ordinary
marginalised people angry over perceptions of inequity in the system and challenging the liberalization/globalization theology of the WTO; of the kind of vision they had for the WTO in the next century; some blunter questions about the dispute settlement system and the panels and the appellate body that has been hauled over the coals recently for usurping the job of the membership in interpreting the rules; and what exactly they hoped they could do when the WTO, an organization of contractual rights and obligations for members, which in its charter, had deliberately decided against any role or initiative for the secretariat beyond what the members specifically asked it to do.

The answers at the HOD meetings, according to diplomats, and at the press conferences, showed the candidates trying in difficult conditions to conciliate all sides and appear responding to the viewpoints and concerns of all sides - making it sometimes difficult to know what the candidate's own views are and what he would actually do when once in office.

At the meeting with the media, Maclaren tried to show that though he is from a Quad member country, he would be acting in the interests of all. Moore sought to project that though he is from a rich developed country, with European origins, he was more aware of the problems of Asia, pointing to the APEC and other Asian neighbours, including Singapore with a higher per capita than New Zealand.

Of the four, three -- Maclaren, Supachai and Moore -- at the press conference implied they would try to provide a high profile in trying to keep the WTO on its goal of liberalization, and appealing to
governments, business and private sectors, and also to NGOs.

But the fourth candidate, Hassan Abouyoub, in effect made clear he would adopt a lower profile at a difficult point in the WTO history -- when for most developing countries the transition periods would end next year and in year 2000 countries would be facing difficult problems of coping with full implementation of obligations.

"I do not like showing off," Hassan said, "but would rather rely upon and work with the Geneva diplomats, with many of whom I have worked before as my country's trade negotiator and then later as Minister... I know the burdens they are all carrying, and I know they have the confidence of their governments, and know their jobs better than anybody else. Modesty can be a double-edged sword, but I accept that risk," he said.

All four candidates, spoke of need to avoid marginalisation, need to win over the NGOs and civil society, and about the need to make the WTO universal by bringing in quickly all the applicants into the disciplines of the system, but without losing the principles of the system, and the fact that this was an issue really for the membership.

Though the two major trading entities have refrained from openly backing or sponsoring any particular candidate there were some clues about their inclinations.

The United States held a diplomatic reception this week, where New Zealand's Moore was present, and the arriving ambassadors and diplomats were taken by an US official to Moore and introduced.

But Australia (linked closely to New Zealand, and an US ally in trade and other matters in the Pacific, and leader of the Cairns group), announced from Kuala Lumpur (where its deputy prime minister and minister of trade has gone for the APEC summit) that his country backed Thailand's Supachai.

Some EU member states have come out in favour of Supachai and others in favour of Abouyoub, but the EC Commission (which speaks for the members) has not fully disclosed its hand.

The ASEAN has backed Supachai, and the African group has backed Abouyoub. At least one Latin American official said his country would back Maclaren - whose country, Canada, was making a big effort to reach out to the Latin American nations, even as the US administration is unable to get Congress to agree to opening up to the hemisphere.

The membership has tentatively agreed to choose a candidate to succeed the present incumbent Renato Ruggiero, agree on a consensus candidate by end of the month, and formally name him by end of December, so that the new man could be in office early in 1999, fully engaged in the preparations for the 3rd Ministerial meeting in the USA.

But on Friday evening, no one was sure whether this time table will or can be met, whether a candidate would be chosen on merit, or it would be a power-ploy between the majors and a deadlock could develop, when a dark horse candidate would emerge. But some dark horses waiting in the wings have already been privately rejected by one or the other of the majors.

All four candidates at their meetings with the heads of delegations, and at the media, swore about the need for consensus at WTO.

At one stage, before the WTO General Council agreed to set in motion the process for choosing a successor to Ruggiero, Egypt said that the choice should be made by voting, but it had no takers.

And while consensus might be a good, but anti-democratic idea in forging contractual obligations, why an organization should not decide the choice of a head of its secretariat by a process of voting is never satisfactorily explained by any of the key trading nations - excepting that the industrialized world, being in a minority, fears the majority.

WTO officials said that Ruggiero, who has said he would not continue and wants to be relieved as early as possible in the New Year, has been feeling that an overlap between him and the successor of a month or two would be good.

However, this may not be so easy.

"In any event," said one observer, "you can't have two swords in a single scabbard and it is better for a new man to start without the burdens of his predecessor."
Most WTO diplomats left little doubt as they left the WTO building Friday that while they would all be conveying to their capitals reports on the presentations, they expect the decision on the choice to be made in the capitals.

Left to themselves, diplomats here may have their own views on whether they want a WTO head who would be constantly ringing up their ministers and sending messages to them (sometimes without even advising the diplomats here as happened a few times with Ruggiero) or deal with the
WTO business at a working level.

Soon after the 1982 GATT Ministerial meeting, the Brazilian ambassador of that time said that GATT was too serious a business to be left to Ministers.

After the Singapore and Geneva meetings, civil society in the South is beginning to say that WTO is too serious a matter to be left to trade or foreign offices.

But whoever replaces Ruggiero, he won't have the luxury of waiting for the majors to agree on something outside which the head of the WTO would then present quickly to the members and get them to okay it.

Most of the implementation problems that the WTO and its members are now facing, including those of the dispute settlement system, are the outcome of secret negotiations among a few and their presentation to delegations with all of them having little time to carefully examine the substance or even the drafting.

It may not be so easy, even in the South with its democratic deficits, for a second time, to say there is no alternative and the public, business sectors and Parliaments have to accept in haste and repent in leisure.

Amd since the public will not find it easy to throw mudpies and eggs on the face of all their delegates, they may continue to make the heads of the WTO their target - as happened to Ruggiero outside Chatham House in London, and perhaps could face some of them in San Diego when the WTO meets next year.