SUNS 4364 Monday 1 February 1999

Washington, Jan 29 (IPS/Danielle Knight ) -- From nuclear reactor accidents to drinking water pollution, the computer glitches expected in the year 2000 threaten the world with a host of
environmental and public health problems, environmental groups say.

When this year comes to an end, many computers and electronically controlled machines will take 00 for 1900 rather than 2000, or will not interpret it at all. So, after Dec. 31, 1999, many computers
and microchips will malfunction by freezing or spewing out incorrect data.

If the millennium bug or Y2K problem, as this phenomenon is called, is not remedied, computer-run operations - including industrial plants, electric grids and health systems - are expected to
malfunction, and threaten public safety and the environment.

Developing countries are expected to be especially hard hit by the millennium bug because they are the least prepared, according to the World Bank and United Nations.

"Computer chips are embedded in many operations of modern life, including power plants, power lines, and drinking water and wastewater treatment plants," says Lois Epstein, a senior engineer
with the Washington-based Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).

"Drinking water may be contaminated because of incorrect automated lab tests and, more seriously, chemical plants or pipelines can have costly and fatal accidents from abnormally high pressures or
temperatures," she says.

In a report titled 'Y2K and the Environment: A Compendium of  Potential Problems and Opportunities,' Epstein outlines specific problems that could occur in various industries.

If there is an interruption of electric power, industries may accidentally release dangerous chemicals, says the report. And the failure of a computer to detect and address abnormal conditions
within a gas or oil pipeline, tank or landfill could cause a potentially hazardous leak that could contaminate soil and groundwater, it explains.

According to the EDF, computer malfunctions at a drinking water treatment plant could cause inaccurate laboratory results or make filtration and disinfection systems fail.

A dam's failure to ensure appropriate water flow could cause floods or inadequate flows in streams or rivers. This may have adverse ecological impacts, including fish kills, says the group.

Fortunately, says Epstein, many of the most dangerous industrial processes are designed to shut down safely if problems are detected, rather than to behave unpredictably.

But she has a word of cautions for sceptics who think the Y2K problem has been over-emphasised: "Computer failures related to incorrect processing of dates are not only hypothetical," she says.
"Already a number of date-related failures have occurred."

Epstein says when computers failed to recognise 1996 as a leap year, some industrial damage occurred before the situation could be corrected.

One industry that may be seriously affected by the computer bug is nuclear power generation, according to the Nuclear Information and Resource Service. The Washington-based watchdog group is concerned that the Y2K problem may cause potentially dangerous glitches in
computerized chips used in nuclear plants.

"At this point, we do not believe that either the nuclear industry or electric utilities generally will be fully prepared to cope with the challenges posed by the Y2K issue," says Michael Mariotte,
executive director of the group. "The possibility of electrical grid instability and local and regional blackouts cannot be ruled out, and nuclear power reactors require large amounts of
electricity for essential cooling even when closed."

Moreover, he says, few - if any - utilities have actually tested emergency plans to cope with potential Y2K difficulties. "The possibility of disruptions of electrical supply, and of
non-Y2K-compliant nuclear reactors, is high enough to cause serious concern," says Mariotte.

The computer glitches could be especially dangerous for nuclear facilities in Eastern Europe, where "financial and other impediments are resulting in little effective Y2K remedial measures to be undertaken," says the organisation.

The EDF suggests that businesses and governments become "Y2K-compliant" by making an inventory of all operations that might have date-related failures. They should then assess the potential impact of failures, identify priorities and correct the most serious problems, suggests Epstein.

She says small and medium-sized companies are likely to have a tougher time than large businesses in ensuring that their operations will not be caught by the computer malfunction.

"Even the best efforts at Y2K compliance might miss an important system, so large and small companies need to be sure that internal and local emergency responders are ready to address any
date-related failures that could impact on safety," says Epstein.

In the United States, the EDF recommends that the federal Environmental Protection Agency, as well as state and local licensing agencies consider making Y2K compliance a condition for the renewal of environmental permits in the near future.

To avoid serious nuclear accidents or blackouts, the Nuclear Information and Resource Service recommends that governments require emergency plans at reactor sites and back-up power sources for nuclear plants.

In the United States, the group is pressing the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission to require the shut-down of non-Y2K-compliant nuclear reactors by December 1999.

"I do believe that the nation's nuclear and electric utilities now recognize the severity of the potential problems," says Mariotte. But, "so far, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and utilities have
not taken every possible step."